Swine Flu Numbers (confused yet?)

Part of my frustration with the news has been the misuse of the numbers related to the swine flu, so let’s take a minute to check them out.

As I’ve said before, the media seems to be very interested in rising numbers (or, perhaps it’s we who are interested, and we’re circulating the stories that sound more interesting).

That’s why when some say that the number of people with the swine flu may be levelling off, that doesn’t make news.  But when one child dies in the US (tragic, don’t get me wrong), that’s all over the news (and is that an honour to that child’s family, or using him for a news story?).

Facts as I understand them:

1. Unless we test every person in the world, we will never know how many people have the swine flu
2. We can, over time, get some good estimates over time.  Still, there are variables that will be debatable.
3. Some variables: are only the worst cases being reported? is the testing changing over time? is it different in different countries? are people more/less apt to report their symptoms in various areas?

Here are the numbers we heard from the Mexican government yesterday.  These numbers are not always exactly the same as the numbers you hear from elsewhere, but are not generally drastically different.

• There have been 99 confirmed cases of the swine flu here in the entire country (the World Health Organization still said 26 cases yesterday)
• Out of those, 8 people have died
• It’s likely that about 176 deaths are related to the swine flu, but that has not been confirmed
• About 2955 people are being watched with flu symptoms, which are likely from the swine flu

What now?

Brace yourself.  Those numbers are probably going to skyrocket.  Why?  Because the virus is suddenly spreading?  Probably (hopefully!) not.

Recently (I thought it was last night, but now I’m hearing it was Monday) Mexico began massive testing for the swine flu.  They need to get better statistics, so we’re going to see those numbers shoot up quickly (probably starting in the next 24hrs).  For those who just read the headlines, that could be reason to panic.  In reality, it may not indicate much of a change.

In fact, the numbers may shoot up while the actual numbers fall!

It may really take several weeks before we have a grip on what’s happening.

What’s really going to happen?

As I mentioned in my last post, no one really seems to know for sure.  But people continue to be concerned, with reason.  Around our area, schools, movie theatres, restaurants (except take-out)…pretty much anything non-essential is either closed or will be after today.

Grocery stores, banks, drugstores, and anything else essential will remain open.  (As I said before, around here stores are busy and streets are still full of people)

Schools are officially closed until May 6th, but no one knows what’s going to happen.

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Footnote:  I’m critical of some of the reporting I’ve seen.  Some of it has been downright wrong.  On the other hand, a lot of it has been very responsible and useful.  I hope all reporting will be responsible (yikes! I guess I’m a reporter too!), and I hope we’ll be responsible readers.

The information here is from my own observations and a variety of news sources.  I found especially helpful this post from Mexican reporter Ana Maria Salazar Slack, the latest report from the World Health Organization, and a variety of other reports from Reuters and other sources.