{"id":966,"date":"2009-04-30T11:39:03","date_gmt":"2009-04-30T16:39:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cottrillcompass.com\/blog\/?p=966"},"modified":"2009-04-30T17:31:37","modified_gmt":"2009-04-30T22:31:37","slug":"swine-flu-numbers-confused-yet-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cottrillcompass.com\/blog\/2009\/swine-flu-numbers-confused-yet-2.html","title":{"rendered":"Swine Flu Numbers (confused yet?)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Part of my frustration with the news has been the misuse of the numbers related to the swine flu, so let’s take a minute to check them out.<\/b><\/p>\n

As I’ve said before<\/a>, the media seems to be very interested in rising numbers<\/i> (or, perhaps it’s we<\/b> who are interested, and we’re circulating the stories that sound more interesting).<\/p>\n

That’s why when some say that the number of people with the swine flu may be levelling off, that doesn’t make news.  But when one child dies in the US (tragic, don’t get me wrong), that’s all over the news (and is that an honour to that child’s family, or using him for a news story?).<\/p>\n

Facts as I understand them:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Unless we test every person in the world, we will never know how many people have the swine flu<\/b><\/li>\n
  2. We can, over time, get some good estimates over time<\/i>.  Still, there are variables that will be debatable.<\/li>\n
  3. Some variables: are only the worst cases being reported? is the testing changing over time? is it different in different countries? are people more\/less apt to report their symptoms in various areas?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Here are the numbers we heard from the Mexican government yesterday.  These numbers are not always exactly the same as the numbers you hear from elsewhere, but are not generally drastically different.<\/p>\n