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Slowly Opening Up?

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Yes, central Mexico is taking some early steps in opening up again.

Toward orange alert in Mexico State

With the concern about the economy, it’s the financial world that’s opening up first. Shopping malls were never completely closed, but on Monday most stores and restaurants were open again. Hotels also opened, the the manufacturing industry is restarting. Everything is supposed to be at 30% capacity when it comes to crowds, and we’re encouraged not to crowd together.

So the contrast right now is that we supposedly remain in the category of maximum risk (red), but we’re moving ahead with opening up anyway.

Economy – that means both survival for many but also convenience for all – seems to be the driving force at the moment. Which raises the question – what does that mean for churches? Although we would consider our meetings “essential”, most of society wouldn’t see it that way.

The good news is that, going by official numbers, it looks like Mexico may be starting on a downward trend when it comes to COVID-19 deaths, although it’s too early to really know for sure. And cases seem to be still rising.

So, at the moment church services are down in the next category – high risk (orange). And probably not right when we enter orange, but two or three steps into orange, if that makes any sense. And the state authorities keep comforting us by affirming that we’re “on the road” to orange, even though we’re not there yet. 🙂

So, there have been some meetings. Shari met with another woman who works with her on the children’s ministry stuff. And last night a group of men from the church met (via video chat) to discuss re-opening. What measures should we take? What will the people of the church want/expect? What will the government want/expect? We have some ideas, but since there’s no knowing when things will open up, it’s hard to move ahead. For example, if we get the news that we can officially open up – and it’s Wednesday – will we be ready on Sunday? Or do we prepare for a week?

We are certainly thankful for the people of the church that God is raising up, and their ideas and wisdom and gifts. And how we constantly challenge one another to look to the Lord, and ask Him for what we want and need. At least, they challenge me!

Sometimes we get so caught up in plans and contingencies and speculation that we forget to … just … pray. Because there is One who already knows what needs to be done, and who has all the resources to get it done.

COVID-19: So Where is Mexico At?

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If you’ve heard conflicting reports about what’s going on in Mexico, you’re not alone. I’m hearing in the news that Mexico is now one of three countries of major concern worldwide, when it comes to COVID-19. But I’ve also heard that the country is starting to open up again.

So – it’s been a while since I’ve posted some charts and news about all this.

Today I went shopping, and it was probably the most restricted that it’s been. One guy ahead of me entering the store was wearing what looked like a plague doctor mask, with a large beak. However, he had to remove it (putting his hands all over it) in order to have his temperature taken before entering. Ah well, nice try.

So some things are restricted – then again, as usual, there are lots of people on the street, some with masks, some without. Some social distancing, some enjoying a pickup game of basketball.

So why would Mexico be in the news when it comes to COVID-19 right now? Let’s take a look at some charts and maps at ourworlddata.org, which I’ve found very useful (just click the graphics to visit the site and play with the data yourself).

17 June 2020 - deaths from COVID-19 map

So you can see that Latin America is currently the worst area for deaths from COVID-19 right now, including Mexico.

So what does this look like compared to the rest of North America?

Ok, so as you can see this gives a good idea of the trajectory of of deaths per capita. I’ve highlighted Mexico, since it’s a little difficult to see with all the lines in red. As you can see, deaths in Canada and the USA were levelling off and starting to drop in late April early May. Over a month later, Mexico is still on the increase. The last few days could be a sign of improvement, but it’s really still too early to tell.

All right, that’s deaths – what about confirmed cases? Maybe if cases are going down, deaths will follow a week or two later.

Once again we’re going with per capita here. As you can see, again, Canada and the USA have been on a downward trend for quite some time. Although there is a slight curve for Mexico, it’s still going up fairly steadily.

Just one more, to highlight why many people are very concerned. When you compare testing in Canada and the USA to Mexico, you have to think that the “apples-to-apples” numbers in Mexico must be much higher. In other words, surely if Mexico were testing at the rate of the rest of North America, total cases would be far above the USA. Yes, Mexico is on this graph – with less than 5% of the testing rate of Canada and the USA.

So are there reasons for optimism? Well, as you can see from the charts above, there have been some signs over the past week or two that things may be starting to level off. And hospitals seem to have the capacity for these cases and more at the moment (just going by official numbers of available beds). And it may be that governments are realizing that some opening up needs to happen if the people are going to survive. And – maybe some people are questioning just how helpful the restrictions have actually been here in Mexico.

So Mexico City has come out with a plan to move to “amber alert”:

CDMX plan to move to amber alert

So, assuming numbers improve? we move to amber alert next week, opening markets, and hotels and restaurants at reduced capacity. “Religious services” would be allowed starting on the 28th, at reduced capacity.

Now there are some interesting questions about all this. For one thing, they’ve been telling us that this may be done by municipality. In our state, we’re in one of the top ten worst municipalities for cases and deaths. So will opening up be delayed here? We will probably need to see what’s happening next week to know for sure.

But we’re certainly starting to think about meeting together again. Capacity is not an issue for us, as long as we can meet where we used to meet back when we met (!).

At the same time, we continue to pray for people in the hospital. And there was another memorial service this past week for a friend of ours from the church in Jesús María who just passed away with COVID-19. We have definitely been at the sickness and death stage when it comes to friends here in our area.

So if you’ve been this interested that you’ve actually read this far, please do pray for us – that we would be able to meet again soon, and that God would provide the physical and spiritual healing that is so needed.

Frustration, Sorrow, and Thanksgiving

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This week has been full of smaller frustrations, deeper sorrows, and many reasons for thanksgiving.

Sunset in Ixtapaluca, Mexico - 2020
Ixtapaluca Sunset

“Smaller frustrations” include problems with our internet, which I’m trying to resolve today with the help the folks at our ISP. I was leading the service, and the music time, on Sunday. And because it was online, I was starting to wonder if I would even be able to lead. We had someone else “host”, if that made any difference. And God answered our prayer and we made it through. However, it was hard at times to hear what other people were saying as they shared.

The service theme was patience – something that none of us have any trouble with, so we didn’t learn much.

We also had a day without water – thankfully, that hasn’t happened for a while.

Deeper sorrows? Two people that we have known in our ministry passed away this week. One was Juan, who was in the hospital with COVID-19. Some of you have been praying – thank you! Please continue to pray for Juan’s wife, Blanca, and their two grown children. The other was Marcos, who was involved briefly in the church at Jesús María, and later attended our church in Las Palmas. He had had significant health problems for a long time. Please pray for his family as well.

Even so, we have a lot to be thankful for, as we see God work even through these sorrows.

I’ve been studying the book of Matthew over the past few months, and was so encouraged by Matthew 14. Jesus and His disciples had planned for a time of rest, but were followed by thousands. And in His compassion for them, Jesus began to teach them again.

But it was getting late, and they needed food. The disciples suggested that they send the crowds away to go find food (still thinking of that little holiday they had been planning?). Jesus answered,“They need not go away; you give them something to eat.”

Oh, sure. We have thousands of loaves of bread here in our lunch-baskets. No problem.

It is a wonderful illustration for me. How do we give so many people in need the things that they need? Challenging times, death, sickness – sorrow. We don’t have the resources. But – our Lord does. So He can say, “Feed my sheep”. And we can – because the resources come from Him. And that includes His Word. We have the food. But it’s not from us.

And finally, the disciples find themselves in an even worse situation – life and death for themselves, in a storm on the sea. This is simply not the holiday they had in mind. And Jesus wasn’t even there.

But just because Jesus isn’t physically present (and He isn’t), does that mean that He is not watching? That He doesn’t care? That He doesn’t have the ability to help?

No, the disciples were still in His hands, and He still had all the resources they needed. Whether for their personal needs, or for the crowds in need. We may not have all the resources. But we know where to look. And His resources are endless and abundant.

Thank God!

COVID-19 Update from Mexico, and Studying Psalms

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Either you’re wondering why I haven’t written more about COVID-19 lately, or perhaps you’re glad I haven’t! But here’s a little update.

This past week Mexico entered into the “top 10” countries of the world for deaths from COVID-19, according to the “official” stats. This is due in great part to the population of Mexico, the 10th most populous country. Per capita, it’s much lower on the list.

As I write, while the USA and Canada have a slight decline of new daily cases, cases in Mexico continue to rise steadily. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s virtually impossible to compare numbers in a meaningful way. For one thing, while the USA and Canada are now testing around 35-40 people per thousand, Mexico is testing between 1 and 2. That alone should make comparisons suspect.

Deaths from COVID-19 as of 23 May 2020 in Canada and Mexico
Click here for current numbers

I think I told some people a while ago that our local area (our municipality, specifically) was actually worse than Canada in general according to the official numbers. I was wrong – the numbers show 2-3 times more cases confirmed in Canada (because of testing, or?), and 1-2 times more deaths. However, the zone we’re in is certainly considered a “high risk” zone, and numbers are still rising.

Out of 125 municipalities in our state, the top ten municipalities account for about 62-65% of cases and deaths, and of course Ixtapaluca is one of the top ten. This is important because the governments are talking about opening things up depending somewhat on the numbers and risk in different municipalities.

All that boring stuff to say that Mexico is not jumping to open everything up, at least not in our area.

More than ever, health is a big topic of conversation and prayer when we talk to our friends. I have asked some of you to pray for our friends Juan and Blanca. Juan is in the hospital – I won’t post the details here because Rod just posted more information and a couple of pictures – so do please continue to pray for Juan and his family. Rod also gives some other details about the stats and the “talk” of what the near future may hold here.

This morning we enjoyed another segment of our Old Testament Survey class, beginning our study of the Psalms. In days when – possibly – a few people may have questions – concerns – complaints – about governments (such a rare thing!) – Psalm 2 struck me anew.

OT Survey Class - The Psalms part 1
OT Survey Class – The Psalms part 1

Like many Psalms, music goes through my head when I think about Psalm 2, such as this version from the Shiyr Poets. Why do the nations rage?

The Psalm reminds me again of one of the running themes in the book of Daniel (in fact, I just quoted the first part of this Psalm in my last sermon on Daniel, if I remember correctly!). The nations of the world may act like pagans, they may even actively plot against God and His Messiah. But not only can they not alter His plans, they in fact find that their actions are being used by God to fulfill His plans.

Whatever governments and leaders and people of power may do, they’re not actually going to stop the Lord of the Universe from building His Church, and doing His will. In this Psalm, God doesn’t struggle valiantly against the wicked – He simply laughs, and says that His Anointed will break them like a piece of pottery – and we know how easy it is to break a bowl.

By the end of the Psalm, perhaps we are reminded of John the Baptist, or Elijah, or Jesus Himself, speaking prophetically to the leaders of their day. They didn’t cower, or hope that they would get an equal vote with everyone else. They preached that God Himself was in charge, and that everyone – the poor and the rich, the oppressed and the powerful – would all need to repent and serve the Lord – seek refuge in Him – before judgement came. That’s the confidence we can have!

Tonight we continue our Bible study talking of Jesus’ mission – a mission that was as unstoppable then as it is now.

The believers in Acts 4 found comfort in this Psalm in a time of persecution. Reading Psalm 2, they knew that they should not be surprised when people in power opposed God and His Messiah. They knew that God was listening, and that His plans would move forward. And they saw that even the greatest injustice was part of God’s plan – wicked leaders had been used in the very plan of salvation itself.

Maybe it seems strange to you that Psalm 2 would be comforting. But in a time when so many are asking “But what if…”, it’s wonderful to be able to say “Even if…” – even if this happens or this law is passed or this person gets sick or this happens to my bank account or this place closes down … God’s plan will move forward. Unimpeded.

When they were released, they went to their friends and reported what the chief priests and the elders had said to them. And when they heard it, they lifted their voices together to God and said, “Sovereign Lord, who made the heaven and the earth and the sea and everything in them, who through the mouth of our father David, your servant, said by the Holy Spirit,
“Why did the Gentiles rage,
and the peoples plot in vain?
The kings of the earth set themselves,
and the rulers were gathered together,
against the Lord and against his Anointed”
for truly in this city there were gathered together against your holy servant Jesus, whom you anointed, both Herod and Pontius Pilate, along with the Gentiles and the peoples of Israel, to do whatever your hand and your plan had predestined to take place. And now, Lord, look upon their threats and grant to your servants to continue to speak your word with all boldness, while you stretch out your hand to heal, and signs and wonders are performed through the name of your holy servant Jesus.

Acts 4:23-30

Mexico in Lockdown

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Although there are businesses still open, those include fewer and fewer “non-essential” businesses, as governments in Mexico try to lock things down more in “phase 3” of COVID-19.

The southern part of Mexico City is currently the “red zone”, as the reported numbers of patients who are infected continues to rise. And as expected, it’s not just the illness itself that is causing problems. (Oh, and to add to the constant news cycle here, Mexico City is also dealing with a measles outbreak!)

Cleaning buses

Above: Men with head-to-toe light blue personal protective equipment (although their hoods are not always up), sprayers and tanks of disinfectant clean public transportation vans and buses at special check points in Ixtapaluca, while passengers are given hand sanitizer.

If businesses are open, they’re only letting in one person at a time, and they must be wearing a face mask. Physical distancing, however, is not much of a success (as you can see even in the pictures above!). At a local grocery store, they finally tried to enforce “one-way isles”. I quickly discovered that if you follow the arrows, you’re bound to be running against the traffic! 😀

Another challenge is that, even in Mexico City, people often find themselves without running water. Kind of hard to do that constant hand washing – and antibacterial gel isn’t exactly in great supply.

Locally, the fire department has been setting up mobile hand washing stations in places like open-air markets, so that people at least have the option while they’re out and about. (In case you’re wondering, thankfully the water situation in our house has been a lot better than in the past.)

News reports are starting to come in that many hospitals which were set aside for COVID-19 patients are already full – including our hospital here in Ixtapaluca.

Only a few days after mass business closures, the completely expected is occurring – people are pointing out that if they can’t work, they can’t eat. Hashtags that are trending on social media now include #SinAlimentos (without groceries) – especially trending around dinner time – and #MexicoConHambre (Mexico is hungry). It doesn’t take a month off work to see the results, in a country where many people still deal only in cash and may not even own a credit card.

I remember well that stage in the earthquake relief when you realized that the needs were huge, and you could only help a few people. A very few, compared to the huge need. Just how to help our communities and how to reach out – we’ll need extra wisdom for these things in the weeks ahead.

Small things, but still things we’re trying to deal with – some technical difficulties. Not long ago the computer we usually used for church media purposes died. Next, our main desktop computer died. Now, our laptop is showing signs of its age. Another odd challenge is that – although we paid our electricity bill from earlier this year – although we brought proof that we paid to the office – the payment is still not showing up in their system. So every time the power goes off (and it’s been rather more often lately), we wonder if it’s being “shut off” by the electric company.

But – so far so good! 🙂

We are looking forward to continuing our institute classes on Saturday (especially because we had to miss the last class), and to a special “adoration service” on Sunday. It’s good to have reasons to learn, and even celebrate, as we continue to seek the Lord together to see how He directs us.

“Phase 3” and Upcoming Events

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OT Survey class
Old Testament Survey Class

In Mexico, when it comes to COVID-19 “phases”, phases 1, 2 and 3 are bad, and then starting with phase 4 recovery begins. At least, that’s the theory. So essentially, phase 3 is a recognition that COVID-19 is an epidemic in Mexico.

So when the government finally announced this week that we are in “phase 3”, what changed? Basically, the announcement was – “We’re now in phase 3. Remember how we told you to be careful? Now we’re really really serious. BE CAREFUL!”

It appears that it’s not so much a matter of new laws from the federal government, but changes more locally as organizations see fit. Local governments, but even more businesses, who are deciding as they go how to handle the situation and interpret what “phase 3” means for them.

For example, in Mexico City in recent days, 20% of the public transportation has been shut down, and face masks are required if you’re on the bus or train (although just how much this will be enforced is uncertain).

“No drive days” were also expanded. Some of you may remember that in Mexico City cars are not allowed to drive on certain days (depending on the last number of their license plate). Newer vehicles can avoid this (ours is just barely new enough) by getting an emissions test. So now we’ve gone to being able to drive every day to having 6 or 7 days per month when we’re not allowed to drive.

Local businesses are either closing down for now, or enforcing special measures for health, or – let’s be honest – not doing much differently at all.

So enough about all that – what activities do we have coming up in the next few days?

We’re continuing a Bible study on basic Christianity, designed to help us to teach others. Tonight’s topic – Who is Jesus? – focusing on what He said about Himself, and what His early followers said. (In case you’re curious, we’ve been using Google Meet for these studies.)

Tomorrow is our online service. We’re (Lord willing) switching to full-on video interaction with the whole congregation, using GoToMeeting. Our services, thankfully, have been very interactive since the beginning, with prayer and sharing times carrying on as normal. But this is the first service, other than a special Good Friday service, when we’ve attempted to get everyone onto at least audio and hopefully in most cases two-way video.

We’re continuing our study of the book of Daniel, which for me has been even more relevant than I expected. Visions of God’s hidden hand in times of trouble – why wouldn’t it be relevant?

Anyway, Rod will be getting us into the 70 weeks of Daniel, in the incredible Daniel chapter 9.

Next week we’ll be continuing our hermeneutics class with the second set of students. It’s exciting times because we’re really starting to get into the nitty-gritty of interpreting passages of the Bible. We’re also continuing with the Old Testament survey course, switching to more frequent but shorter classes.

And of course in between all the regular studies and prep for the studies, we’re trying to serve one another as we’re able.

These are busy times, actually. For those who have been paying attention the past few years, we traditionally consider “manic May” one of our busiest times of the year, and this year is proving to be no exception! But I suppose it’s nice to know that there are some things that haven’t changed.

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