Jim

A little number-crunching may help everyone understand the current situation here in Mexico when it comes to COVID-19. Now, this is very current – as of today – likely to be quite different in a week or less (numbers based on WHO stats).

So here’s a little chart showing the officially reported COVID-19 cases per capita. First, if you look at all three North American countries, you can see that Mexico is a fraction of Canada and the USA – not anywhere near the number of confirmed cases. Compare it to an average of the 15 largest countries in the world (obviously skewed toward China), it’s got hardly any cases.

Among countries on its border – Mexico again is way lower. Finally, just look at the 5 largest countries in Latin America – not including Mexico this time – Mexico has about half of the average cases.

You can think about various reasons why this may be. But the fact of the matter is, in one sense, Mexico has not seen the same need for concern because it is only just starting its COVID-19 journey. We can pray, of course, that the country is not hit as hard as other countries. But unless God so chooses, it seems very likely that the cases in Mexico are about to rise drastically.

The government needs to move very carefully on this, as does every other government in the world. And no doubt you’ve heard some of the reasons why. COVID-19 is not the only enemy. How will a rise in cases affect the health system? Will people get “tired” of isolation too early if there are too many restrictions too soon?

But there are a lot of reasons why Mexico is unique. First, on a national level, we’re hearing that it’s one of two or three countries in Latin America that will be hit the hardest due to the worldwide situation. (1) Oil and gas are very important to the economy here, and prices have dropped (something that was happening anyway, virus or no virus, as I understand it). (2) Mexico is highly dependent on trade with countries that have been greatly effected – we’re talking about China and the USA.

Locally, our municipal government is already restricting public meetings. Schools are cancelling classes as of Friday, although in some places classes are already cancelled, or students simply aren’t attending.

We are low on antibacterial gel – but we have lots of toilet paper. However, with recent news that people from the USA are streaming into Mexico to buy it, that may not last long!

Now, let’s bring things to ground level. Many people in our area have multiple people in the family working, sometimes people work more than one job. People often commute from Ixtapaluca into the federal district, meaning that they leave before dawn and arrive home at 10 or 11 at night.

Many people are working so hard because they are living week to week, just trying to pay basic bills (and they may be behind on those!).

Now imagine that – unexpectedly – you have young kids who are going to be home for 4 or 5 weeks at least. Who will take care of them? And how will you pay for it? You weren’t paying for school, but now you may have to pay for child care.

And then, depending on the industry, there are lay-offs, or there are less hours.

For people struggling to pay this week’s bills, there are no savings. Prices are going up, the peso is going down (quite a bit since mid-February – but prices were already going up before then). And now you have all these unexpected expenses, and less work. Throw in some extra sickness, and you have a very serious situation.

This is not in any way to minimize the situation in Canada or the USA, where this is also wiping out savings, closing businesses, and causing emotional stress. And many of you have your stories to tell already.

But if you think of it, do pray for the situation here. The believers we know are certainly trusting in the Lord, and we want to find ways to help one another (some #caremongering, as they say in Canada!). We as a church need to take leadership in these times. But knowing how to support one another and our communities is not going to be so easy.

And other issues in Mexico continue to cause concern. Will there be people who are desperate enough to take desperate measures, raising the levels of kidnapping and violence?

Much has gone on as normal here, although that is really starting to change this week. We are trying to make decisions regarding our regular ministry, and they’re not easy decisions to make. And it’s important to think long term. This is not over, and when it is, it is probably coming again with another fancy name in years ahead. We should not be acting and planning as if this is a once a generation event. It may only be a dress rehearsal.

It has been wonderful already to see how God is working during these challenging times. Our prayer and testimony time this past Sunday might have shocked you with the severity of things that people are faced with – but also with the faith and growth that is in their lives. This is the contradiction – somehow, with the world in tumult, we see all the more that we are not people of this world.

So our eyes are open to see more of God’s immeasurable grace and kindness in the weeks to come.

But God, being rich in mercy, because of the great love with which he loved us, even when we were dead in our trespasses, made us alive together with Christ—by grace you have been saved— and raised us up with him and seated us with him in the heavenly places in Christ Jesus, so that in the coming ages he might show the immeasurable riches of his grace in kindness toward us in Christ Jesus.

Ephesians 2:4-7