COVID-19: So Where is Mexico At?

If you’ve heard conflicting reports about what’s going on in Mexico, you’re not alone. I’m hearing in the news that Mexico is now one of three countries of major concern worldwide, when it comes to COVID-19. But I’ve also heard that the country is starting to open up again.

So – it’s been a while since I’ve posted some charts and news about all this.

Today I went shopping, and it was probably the most restricted that it’s been. One guy ahead of me entering the store was wearing what looked like a plague doctor mask, with a large beak. However, he had to remove it (putting his hands all over it) in order to have his temperature taken before entering. Ah well, nice try.

So some things are restricted – then again, as usual, there are lots of people on the street, some with masks, some without. Some social distancing, some enjoying a pickup game of basketball.

So why would Mexico be in the news when it comes to COVID-19 right now? Let’s take a look at some charts and maps at ourworlddata.org, which I’ve found very useful (just click the graphics to visit the site and play with the data yourself).

So you can see that Latin America is currently the worst area for deaths from COVID-19 right now, including Mexico.

So what does this look like compared to the rest of North America?

Ok, so as you can see this gives a good idea of the trajectory of of deaths per capita. I’ve highlighted Mexico, since it’s a little difficult to see with all the lines in red. As you can see, deaths in Canada and the USA were levelling off and starting to drop in late April early May. Over a month later, Mexico is still on the increase. The last few days could be a sign of improvement, but it’s really still too early to tell.

All right, that’s deaths – what about confirmed cases? Maybe if cases are going down, deaths will follow a week or two later.

Once again we’re going with per capita here. As you can see, again, Canada and the USA have been on a downward trend for quite some time. Although there is a slight curve for Mexico, it’s still going up fairly steadily.

Just one more, to highlight why many people are very concerned. When you compare testing in Canada and the USA to Mexico, you have to think that the “apples-to-apples” numbers in Mexico must be much higher. In other words, surely if Mexico were testing at the rate of the rest of North America, total cases would be far above the USA. Yes, Mexico is on this graph – with less than 5% of the testing rate of Canada and the USA.

So are there reasons for optimism? Well, as you can see from the charts above, there have been some signs over the past week or two that things may be starting to level off. And hospitals seem to have the capacity for these cases and more at the moment (just going by official numbers of available beds). And it may be that governments are realizing that some opening up needs to happen if the people are going to survive. And – maybe some people are questioning just how helpful the restrictions have actually been here in Mexico.

So Mexico City has come out with a plan to move to “amber alert”:

So, assuming numbers improve? we move to amber alert next week, opening markets, and hotels and restaurants at reduced capacity. “Religious services” would be allowed starting on the 28th, at reduced capacity.

Now there are some interesting questions about all this. For one thing, they’ve been telling us that this may be done by municipality. In our state, we’re in one of the top ten worst municipalities for cases and deaths. So will opening up be delayed here? We will probably need to see what’s happening next week to know for sure.

But we’re certainly starting to think about meeting together again. Capacity is not an issue for us, as long as we can meet where we used to meet back when we met (!).

At the same time, we continue to pray for people in the hospital. And there was another memorial service this past week for a friend of ours from the church in Jesús María who just passed away with COVID-19. We have definitely been at the sickness and death stage when it comes to friends here in our area.

So if you’ve been this interested that you’ve actually read this far, please do pray for us – that we would be able to meet again soon, and that God would provide the physical and spiritual healing that is so needed.