The Impossible COVID-19 Forecast (and why Mexico is not Canada or the USA)

Mathematicians and statisticians are having a field day with COVID-19. Data and charts galore are at our fingertips.

I’ve spent many years working with medical statistics because of my research into migraine and headache conditions. And I have to agree with what a lot of people have been saying – the data that we have right now is really very limited if we’re trying to find out the basic truth about the spread of the virus. There are just so many unknown variables.

That being said, the data that we’re seeing is useful for one thing. Who knows how many people are checking out the dashboard at Johns Hopkins every day? And those numbers are influencing the way people think about the situation, and the way they’re responding to it.

So that’s one of the reasons the charts interest me. And according to the charts, Mexico is probably about two weeks behind Canada – but Mexico is a very different country, and decisions about testing and quarantine et cetera could affect those numbers considerably. (No doubt you can think of a few things to stuff into that et cetera.)

Just to give a comparison again, here’s a comparison of the numbers for Mexico, Canada and the USA (normalized by population from these charts – cases per million. I think the numbers are a day or two behind, which won’t make much difference to the comparison).

As I heard from someone early on, once the numbers get to a certain point, we will be “asked to panic”.

Again, these numbers influence our perception, even though the comparison has so many variables. But the fact is, Mexico is not Canada, nor the USA.

Someone said recently, “social isolation is the privilege of the rich”. That may not be a lot of comfort to people in the rest of North America who have lost their jobs and their savings, and don’t know how they’re going to pay next month’s rent.

But the fact remains that Mexico is a significantly poorer country. Where we live, in spite of the government’s strong warnings to “stay at home”, people are still crowding into public transportation and going to work. Why? Because they work across the city, and they have to work to eat next week – or even today.

It’s interesting to think that many of the very poor in the villages may actually be in a more hopeful position than those who live in the city with a much better paying job – for now. Why? Because many outside of the cities have community/family support, gardens, maybe a few animals. Those in the city are much more reliant on a system that keeps working as normal, and jobs that keep paying.

They have already been struggling day to day. Probably behind on some payments. But now?

Many businesses are shut down – especially large ones. But family businesses in many cases have to keep running – but with fewer customers. And how long before they are shut down as well?

And people have had many different reactions. Denial. Anger. Frustration with those who don’t agree with them. Misinformation has been passed around, while at the same time dissenting views are silenced.

Supply lines already seem to be suffering. Related to COVID-19 or not, some communities in Mexico City have seen a drop in their water supply (water is often delivered to houses). Items aren’t on the shelves, or the price is rising.

Of course, alcohol sales are going through the roof as Mexico enters its holiday season. Sales increased all the more when the government shut down some of the breweries! So how will more alcohol affect home life in the next couple of weeks?

Mexico is also one of the leading countries for obesity and diabetes, two risk factors for complications.

We are concerned for our friends in Canada and the USA. Perhaps for many the hardest part of all this will be in the years ahead, not in the weeks ahead.

So although we can’t compare suffering, just like we can’t compare COVID-19 statistics, we do need to remember that Mexico is not Canada, nor is it the USA. Things will be different here. Preparations and responses will need to be different here. And our ministry will have different challenges.

Thanks for your prayers.