On this day in 2010, exactly ten years ago, Nathanael was graduating with his kindergarten class (K3). This was his last year attending Elizabeth Catelett Kindergarten in Ixtapaluca (named after the American/Mexican artist).
I have lots of pictures and video from that night, including some with his mortarboard, but this is one of my favourites. I think he was walking across the stage to receive his diploma.
If you’ve heard conflicting reports about what’s going on in Mexico, you’re not alone. I’m hearing in the news that Mexico is now one of three countries of major concern worldwide, when it comes to COVID-19. But I’ve also heard that the country is starting to open up again.
So – it’s been a while since I’ve posted some charts and news about all this.
Today I went shopping, and it was probably the most restricted that it’s been. One guy ahead of me entering the store was wearing what looked like a plague doctor mask, with a large beak. However, he had to remove it (putting his hands all over it) in order to have his temperature taken before entering. Ah well, nice try.
So some things are restricted – then again, as usual, there are lots of people on the street, some with masks, some without. Some social distancing, some enjoying a pickup game of basketball.
So why would Mexico be in the news when it comes to COVID-19 right now? Let’s take a look at some charts and maps at ourworlddata.org, which I’ve found very useful (just click the graphics to visit the site and play with the data yourself).
So you can see that Latin America is currently the worst area for deaths from COVID-19 right now, including Mexico.
So what does this look like compared to the rest of North America?
Ok, so as you can see this gives a good idea of the trajectory of of deaths per capita. I’ve highlighted Mexico, since it’s a little difficult to see with all the lines in red. As you can see, deaths in Canada and the USA were levelling off and starting to drop in late April early May. Over a month later, Mexico is still on the increase. The last few days could be a sign of improvement, but it’s really still too early to tell.
All right, that’s deaths – what about confirmed cases? Maybe if cases are going down, deaths will follow a week or two later.
Once again we’re going with per capita here. As you can see, again, Canada and the USA have been on a downward trend for quite some time. Although there is a slight curve for Mexico, it’s still going up fairly steadily.
Just one more, to highlight why many people are very concerned. When you compare testing in Canada and the USA to Mexico, you have to think that the “apples-to-apples” numbers in Mexico must be much higher. In other words, surely if Mexico were testing at the rate of the rest of North America, total cases would be far above the USA. Yes, Mexico is on this graph – with less than 5% of the testing rate of Canada and the USA.
So are there reasons for optimism? Well, as you can see from the charts above, there have been some signs over the past week or two that things may be starting to level off. And hospitals seem to have the capacity for these cases and more at the moment (just going by official numbers of available beds). And it may be that governments are realizing that some opening up needs to happen if the people are going to survive. And – maybe some people are questioning just how helpful the restrictions have actually been here in Mexico.
So Mexico City has come out with a plan to move to “amber alert”:
So, assuming numbers improve? we move to amber alert next week, opening markets, and hotels and restaurants at reduced capacity. “Religious services” would be allowed starting on the 28th, at reduced capacity.
Now there are some interesting questions about all this. For one thing, they’ve been telling us that this may be done by municipality. In our state, we’re in one of the top ten worst municipalities for cases and deaths. So will opening up be delayed here? We will probably need to see what’s happening next week to know for sure.
But we’re certainly starting to think about meeting together again. Capacity is not an issue for us, as long as we can meet where we used to meet back when we met (!).
At the same time, we continue to pray for people in the hospital. And there was another memorial service this past week for a friend of ours from the church in Jesús MarÃa who just passed away with COVID-19. We have definitely been at the sickness and death stage when it comes to friends here in our area.
So if you’ve been this interested that you’ve actually read this far, please do pray for us – that we would be able to meet again soon, and that God would provide the physical and spiritual healing that is so needed.
I don’t know the stats, but surely, other than religious holidays, Mother’s Day has got to be the biggest day of the year in Mexico. So what happens when you’ve got to celebrate in the days of a COVID-19 lockdown?
By the way, a quick update. Going by the “official” numbers, Mexico is very much at a different stage than the USA and Canada. On the one hand, it looks like while Canada has had less than half the cases per capita than the USA, Mexico has had less than 15% of what Canada has had. Even though in total cases it’s about half of Canada.
But the 7 day average of new cases is not as encouraging. Canada has been recording about 78% of the cases for the week as it was a week ago. The USA, 89% – not quite as encouraging, but an improvement. Mexico, on the other hand, is recording almost 123% what it was a week ago. In other words, going by the official numbers, the number of cases are rising pretty quickly, while they drop in the rest of North America.
Ok, those were your stats of the day.
Mexico always celebrates Mother’s Day on the 10th of May, no matter what day of the week it falls on. So, as you can imagine, having Mother’s Day on the weekend is a big deal! But – do we really want everyone visiting their Moms right now – especially their elderly Moms?
Mexico City came up with a clever solution – let’s postpone Mother’s Day! So, the new date, apparently, is the 10th of July. As one graphic said – If Mom waited 9 months to meet you, you can wait 2 months to celebrate her.
To be honest, I’m not sure how many people paid any attention to the memo.
Not only was there concern about visiting Mom, there was also a concern about line-ups for flowers, and crowds at the cemeteries.
Yes, visiting Mom at the cemetery is also a big part of Mother’s Day. So the announcement came from the municipality – don’t even try. The cemeteries are closed. Except for burials – and in that case only 15 people maximum will be allowed in.
However, there were lots of online events to keep Moms entertained for the day. And although I’m sure there was a lot of secret visiting going on, the online visits were also happening, and it seemed like the internet almost couldn’t bear the weight of it all!
We enjoyed a great Sunday service put together by our friend Oscar, with special prayer for the Moms, a quiz about Moms in the Bible, and a special reading. We sang a song to the Moms led by Rod. And providentially, our Bible reading on Sunday was Psalm 131.
And of course we were able to spend some time with our Moms as well!
So – a very different Mother’s Day this year. And who knows? Maybe we can celebrate again in July! 😀
Although there are businesses still open, those include fewer and fewer “non-essential” businesses, as governments in Mexico try to lock things down more in “phase 3” of COVID-19.
The southern part of Mexico City is currently the “red zone”, as the reported numbers of patients who are infected continues to rise. And as expected, it’s not just the illness itself that is causing problems. (Oh, and to add to the constant news cycle here, Mexico City is also dealing with a measles outbreak!)
Above: Men with head-to-toe light blue personal protective equipment (although their hoods are not always up), sprayers and tanks of disinfectant clean public transportation vans and buses at special check points in Ixtapaluca, while passengers are given hand sanitizer.
If businesses are open, they’re only letting in one person at a time, and they must be wearing a face mask. Physical distancing, however, is not much of a success (as you can see even in the pictures above!). At a local grocery store, they finally tried to enforce “one-way isles”. I quickly discovered that if you follow the arrows, you’re bound to be running against the traffic! 😀
Another challenge is that, even in Mexico City, people often find themselves without running water. Kind of hard to do that constant hand washing – and antibacterial gel isn’t exactly in great supply.
Locally, the fire department has been setting up mobile hand washing stations in places like open-air markets, so that people at least have the option while they’re out and about. (In case you’re wondering, thankfully the water situation in our house has been a lot better than in the past.)
News reports are starting to come in that many hospitals which were set aside for COVID-19 patients are already full – including our hospital here in Ixtapaluca.
Only a few days after mass business closures, the completely expected is occurring – people are pointing out that if they can’t work, they can’t eat. Hashtags that are trending on social media now include #SinAlimentos (without groceries) – especially trending around dinner time – and #MexicoConHambre (Mexico is hungry). It doesn’t take a month off work to see the results, in a country where many people still deal only in cash and may not even own a credit card.
I remember well that stage in the earthquake relief when you realized that the needs were huge, and you could only help a few people. A very few, compared to the huge need. Just how to help our communities and how to reach out – we’ll need extra wisdom for these things in the weeks ahead.
Small things, but still things we’re trying to deal with – some technical difficulties. Not long ago the computer we usually used for church media purposes died. Next, our main desktop computer died. Now, our laptop is showing signs of its age. Another odd challenge is that – although we paid our electricity bill from earlier this year – although we brought proof that we paid to the office – the payment is still not showing up in their system. So every time the power goes off (and it’s been rather more often lately), we wonder if it’s being “shut off” by the electric company.
But – so far so good! 🙂
We are looking forward to continuing our institute classes on Saturday (especially because we had to miss the last class), and to a special “adoration service” on Sunday. It’s good to have reasons to learn, and even celebrate, as we continue to seek the Lord together to see how He directs us.
In Mexico, when it comes to COVID-19 “phases”, phases 1, 2 and 3 are bad, and then starting with phase 4 recovery begins. At least, that’s the theory. So essentially, phase 3 is a recognition that COVID-19 is an epidemic in Mexico.
So when the government finally announced this week that we are in “phase 3”, what changed? Basically, the announcement was – “We’re now in phase 3. Remember how we told you to be careful? Now we’re really really serious. BE CAREFUL!”
It appears that it’s not so much a matter of new laws from the federal government, but changes more locally as organizations see fit. Local governments, but even more businesses, who are deciding as they go how to handle the situation and interpret what “phase 3” means for them.
For example, in Mexico City in recent days, 20% of the public transportation has been shut down, and face masks are required if you’re on the bus or train (although just how much this will be enforced is uncertain).
“No drive days” were also expanded. Some of you may remember that in Mexico City cars are not allowed to drive on certain days (depending on the last number of their license plate). Newer vehicles can avoid this (ours is just barely new enough) by getting an emissions test. So now we’ve gone to being able to drive every day to having 6 or 7 days per month when we’re not allowed to drive.
Local businesses are either closing down for now, or enforcing special measures for health, or – let’s be honest – not doing much differently at all.
So enough about all that – what activities do we have coming up in the next few days?
We’re continuing a Bible study on basic Christianity, designed to help us to teach others. Tonight’s topic – Who is Jesus? – focusing on what He said about Himself, and what His early followers said. (In case you’re curious, we’ve been using Google Meet for these studies.)
Tomorrow is our online service. We’re (Lord willing) switching to full-on video interaction with the whole congregation, using GoToMeeting. Our services, thankfully, have been very interactive since the beginning, with prayer and sharing times carrying on as normal. But this is the first service, other than a special Good Friday service, when we’ve attempted to get everyone onto at least audio and hopefully in most cases two-way video.
We’re continuing our study of the book of Daniel, which for me has been even more relevant than I expected. Visions of God’s hidden hand in times of trouble – why wouldn’t it be relevant?
Anyway, Rod will be getting us into the 70 weeks of Daniel, in the incredible Daniel chapter 9.
Next week we’ll be continuing our hermeneutics class with the second set of students. It’s exciting times because we’re really starting to get into the nitty-gritty of interpreting passages of the Bible. We’re also continuing with the Old Testament survey course, switching to more frequent but shorter classes.
And of course in between all the regular studies and prep for the studies, we’re trying to serve one another as we’re able.
These are busy times, actually. For those who have been paying attention the past few years, we traditionally consider “manic May” one of our busiest times of the year, and this year is proving to be no exception! But I suppose it’s nice to know that there are some things that haven’t changed.
Walking down the street today, you might be forgiven if you thought for a moment that everything was “normal”. If anything, streets are busier. Shopping and business almost seemed to be going on as normal.
I was reminded again today of how differently things look depending on where you are – in which country, or even on which street. I’ve read articles from people in Mexico that seem difficult to believe – but then I’m reminded that even here, things are quite different depending on where you are. Even from one community to the next.
Just so you know, everything is not normal, although it’s difficult to give a general overview. It’s complicated. Many businesses are indeed closed. And right now many people are even more concerned about the dreaded “Phase 3”. Phase 3 is the threatened phase when things are supposed to get a lot stricter, and it’s likely to happen this week.
Oops – already out of date! A “Phase 3” was declared this morning. We are now learning about Phase 3 and what it will mean to all of us.
But just exactly what that will look like no one really knows – and again, it will vary from place to place (that’s not necessarily a bad thing, of course).
But people who, up until now, have been holding on to their jobs, or mostly regular hours, may find themselves in a much worse situation soon.
(There are actually more phases, but phases after 3 relate to recovery. So phase 3 is the worst phase, when the spread of the virus is considered to be the most dangerous.)
I thought you’d be interested in another chart – another chart that shows just how difficult it is to rely on simple “total cases” numbers that you may see (in Mexico now nearing 10,000). I was curious to compare testing rates – just how many people are actually being tested for COVID-19? Now, why would you test fewer people? Maybe because the cases are less severe. Or you have less money for testing. Or because people don’t bother to get tested. Many possible reasons! But testing rates obviously affect the totals we see.
So here it is, based on a chart from Our World in Data at Oxford University.
Canada is red – they’ve been doing an amazing amount of testing. The USA is blue. And Mexico is green. Can you see the green line?
So yes, that will make a difference in the stats.
Since this is a somewhat random post, here’s something fun from the government of Mexico. Would you like to hear what “Stay home!” sounds like in some of the many languages of Mexico? Scroll down this page to where it says “AUDIOS QUÉDATE EN CASA“, and you can click on over 50 different languages, urging you to stay home. 🙂
(Interesting, considering that dozens of languages in Mexico still have no Bible in their language! Something to think about…)